Hi Rally community. My name is Andrew Flowers and I’m the Lead Labor Economist at Appcast, the global leader in programmatic recruitment advertising technology and services. I’ve produced more than 30 research reports over the course of 15 years in the industry, and I can tell you what we’re seeing now is a challenging and exciting time of change in the recruiting world.
At RallyFwd on December 8, 2021, I’ll be sharing our latest research on the labor shortage and what to expect in Recruitment Marketing and recruitment advertising trends in 2022.
What you’ll learn in my RallyFwd session
- Understand the factors that are contributing to the current labor shortages
- Inflation’s impact on the labor market
- Long-term factors affecting recruiting
Today I want to share a sneak preview of what I’ll be speaking about at RallyFwd.
Mismatch between supply and demand
Job openings hit a near-record high of over 10 million in September, but the number of unemployed people was about 7 million and that gap was the largest we’ve ever had.
That means there’s a lot of competition for workers and the pool of talent to recruit from is smaller than before the pandemic, making your job as recruiters very challenging in this environment.
This graph shows how job openings outnumbered job seekers by 2.8 million currently.
The COVID-19 recession is very unique because we saw a sudden drop in economic growth and then a very sudden bounce back. However, the supply of workers hasn’t bounced back yet so we’re still seeing this great mismatch between supply and demand. We expect this to level out as long as COVID rates decrease because there are still many workers, particularly in the service industry, that are hesitant to return to work.
The impact of government policy on the labor force
You’ve probably heard on many occasions how extended unemployment benefits are keeping workers at home and out of the labor force. However, in our research this was only a small factor in job growth.
There are many other government policies we’ve seen significantly affect the labor force including increased stimulus support funds, child care tax credits and immigration restrictions.
Because of these policies, the average account balances of households in the United States, especially in lower income households, is higher than before the pandemic. This means those workers have a cushion and can be choosier about what jobs they want to take.
Because of new government benefits, household incomes are higher, meaning workers have more flexibility to consider more options for work.
This has shifted responsibility on employers to step up and re-evaluate how they recruit and what they can offer workers to differentiate themselves from their competitors.
Behind “The Great Resignation”
There’s been a shift in work attitudes, where workers aren’t only demanding better and higher wages, they’re empowered to change careers entirely.
For example, in service industries — hospitality and leisure especially — employees leaving their jobs has become rampant and is partly driven by wages. That’s because “job switchers” are seeing a spike in their salary or hourly rates.
This graph shows how quit rates are at all-time highs in many industries.
Retirement also had a huge surge during the past year. And of course, for many corporate roles, remote working has become an increasingly important value. How quickly and effectively companies were able to adapt, was a factor in many people’s decision to change jobs.
Talent attraction predictions for 2022
There’s still lots of uncertainty for what this all means for the world of recruiting, but based on our data and research, here are my top 3 predictions:
- The labor shortage will continue in short-term, although some easing in 2022
- Inflation and supply chain bottlenecks are likely to ease, but s-l-o-w-l-y
- Long-term trends favor workers relative to employers, but politics is hard to predict
We don’t have a crystal ball but we hope our research can help equip Recruitment Marketing professionals with data and insight on recruiting and job advertising trends that impact your work!
While job growth is increasing, we can see that recovery has a ways to go compared to February 2020.
Let’s RallyFwd together
This is only a sneak peek of my session at RallyFwd, so if you’re keen to learn more — register today! You’ll learn from others in the Rally community, an amazing speaker lineup and leave with tactical ways to step up your approach to Recruitment Marketing, employer branding and candidate experience.
Join us on December 8, 2021 to learn, connect and be inspired. Register here!